China’s population has surprisingly shrunk for the first time in over 60 years

 A remarkable development considering the country’s population growth rate for the past decades. This decline has been attributed to several factors such as the ageing population, a decrease in fertility rates, and increased emigration. Additionally, the government’s two-child policy has also impacted population growth, leading to a decrease in the number of births. As a result, the Chinese population has decreased, signaling a shift in the country’s population dynamics.

China’s population has, for the first time since 1961, decreased due to the disastrous agricultural policy under Mao Zedong during the country’s worst famine in modern history. This marks a significant shift away from the nation’s long-standing population growth, and will likely have a lasting impact on the country’s economy and society.

At the end of 2022, the total mainland Chinese population was reported to be 1,411,750,000 by Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This marked a decrease of 850,000 from the end of the previous year, with the number of births being 9.56 million and the number of deaths standing at 10.41 million. Men continued to outnumber women 722.06 million to 689.69 million.

This is the first population decline since 1961, when the country experienced the worst famine in its history due to Mao Zedong’s agricultural policy, the Great Leap Forward. India is expected to overtake China soon as the most populous nation in the world.

Kang Yi, the head of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China, has reassured people that the recent population decline in the country should not be a cause of worry, as the overall labour supply still exceeds demand. Despite the 2016 policy change allowing couples to have three children, and the 2021 policy change allowing couples to have two children, the demographic decline has not been reversed.

According to a United Nations expert forecast, China’s population could decrease by 109 million by 2050, more than triple the decline of their previous forecast in 2019. However, despite this, the NBS head still believes that the population decline should not be a cause for concern.

Katrina Yu reported from Beijing that China has implemented several initiatives to prevent a “demographic crisis”, such as dropping the one-child policy and increasing parental leave and subsidies. However, these efforts have failed to make a difference, as the birth rate stands at 6.77 births per 1,000 people and the death rate is at its highest ever.

The causes behind this trend appear to be the rising costs of living in Chinese cities, combined with the COVID-19 pandemic response; people are choosing to delay marriage or not have children due to these high expenses.

Thread: 1) #China‘s #population has dropped by 850K, declining for the first time since the Great Famine of 1961. This isn’t a total shock, the birth rate has been on a downtrend trend in recent years, despite introducing the 3-child policy of 2021.

— Katrina Yu (@Katmyu) January 17, 2023

 

 The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on China’s family planning, as the country just emerged from a three year zero-COVID policy which caused “huge uncertainty” and disruption to people’s lives. As a result, many people chose not to expand their families and have children during this time.

Additionally, the economic effect of a declining population is a primary concern for China, as the country’s large working-age population (70% in 2010) was a key contributor to the nation’s economic growth. Unfortunately, with the aging population increasing, it appears China may not be able to become wealthy before it becomes old.